One of the most quoted lines about NBA prospects is: if they develop a shot, they will be super stars. Lottery pick after lottery pick are taken with one gap in their game, shooting. That is to say, the lack of shooting really doesn't scare teams off. After all, more than most talents, shooting theoretically should be something that can be improved, something that can be worked on. One should be able to improve their percentages in the NBA over time, it is almost impossible to grow a couple more inches, or become much faster. But how likely is it for these top prospects to develop that one thing that takes them over the edge? This is especially relevant in a draft with the most exciting prospect since Lebron in Zion Williamson lacking that very thing.
In this blog post, I will attempt to take a look at NBA lottery picks from 2008-2013. I picked 2013 as the end point because at this point players have had 5 years to develop, which gives them a fair amount of time (it would be unfair to judge the rookies last year for instance), and then 2008 as a beginning point as this gives us a nice 6 year sample when the era of shooting started to come about. I will be looking at every lottery player that both draftexpress and NBAdraft.net list shooting as a weakness. I did not mention players where shooting was a major strength of theirs (regardless if it was true or not) and players where three point shooting was not even a skill set mentioned which was mostly for centers or bigger power forwards. I will also be mostly focusing on their three point percentages now in their careers. Should be noted that this is more of a shallow analysis, but will hopefully be able to identify broad percentages or trends. Lets begin this first part with 2008 and 2009.
2008:
1. Derrick Rose: Then: Both sites list shooting as a weakness. They did not agree necessarily where his flaws as a shooter lie, but both were confident that it was very fixable and showed enough flashes to be a solid shooter down the line. Now: For every year but this past one, Derrick Rose did not really develop into any better of a shooter than he was in college. For his career, he is .304 from behind the arc, on 2.6 attempts per game, which essentially means he averages less than 1 made 3 per game. This last year with Minnesota, he had by far his best year from the arc, shooting .370, which was above league average for the first time in his career, but still only 2.9 attempts. Will need to see if his shooting last year was an anomaly or not, but so far, Derrick Rose did not improve his shooting.
8. Joe Alexander: Then: Both mentioned shooting as something that needed to be worked on but the mechanics and building blocks were there. Now: Alexander flamed out after his rookie season. In that season, he shot .348 from three, below league average, on .8 attempts. Joe Alexander did not improve his shooting in the NBA.
14. Anthony Randolph: Then: Shooting definitely a weakness, not something in his repertoire and would need to develop. Draftnet said his stroke was solid, but needed range. Express said his mechanics were poor, didn't have much range, and was streaky from mid. Now: Randolph had a 6 year career, and never developed that three pointer. Ended with a .241 three point percentage on .3 attempts per game. Anthony Randolph did not improve his shooting.
Overall none of the lottery picks in 2008 that needed to improve their jump shot did. Caveats: Jury still out on Derrick Rose, and Brook Lopez was said to have a good shooting stroke (from mid-range), but he is definitely an example of a player that dramatically improved his three point shooting in the NBA, assuming he can keep his Bucks form. Russell Westbrook was a player that maybe should've counted as a player who did not develop his shot (a career .308 shooter from three), but NBAdraft.net did not have shooting as much of a weakness for him at all, even though DraftExpress did.
0/3, or 1/4 if counting Brook Lopez, 1/5 with Westbrook. We will be using 1/4 for the future.
2009:
1. Blake Griffin: Then: Both agreed shooting was not one of Blake's strengths. Needed to become consistent and add range, and especially increase his free throw percentage. Now: Went from not shooting threes at all, to now having it as a legit part of his arsenal. Past two seasons he has hit .355 from three, which is almost exactly league average on 6.3 attempts a game. Also went from a .500 free throw shooter to solidly above .700 in his last 5 years. Blake Griffin dramatically improved his shooting.
3. James Harden: Then: Shockingly, James Harden was not viewed as a shooter in his day. Both sites listed shooting off the dribble as a big weakness, and shooting in general as something he would need to work on, but they both thought it was an improvable skill. Now: James Harden is a lethal shooter, especially off the dribble, his step back is becoming iconic. Even though his percentages in a vacuum aren't incredible .365, a bit above league average, that percentage on the volume he shoots them is unreal, he takes 7.3 for his career, and over his last three seasons he is taking more than 10 per game, and very few are catch and shoot. James Harden dramatically improved his shooting.
4. Tyreke Evans: Then: Both listed him as a inconsistent, streaky shooter with poor mechanics, and was really the one thing he needed to improve on. Now: Tyreke did not manage to become an all-world player, but did add shooting to his arsenal. Since 2015-2016, has shot well above league average from 3 at .377 on 3.6 attempts per game. Decent percentage on low volume is better than he was. Tyreke Evans improved his shooting.
5. Ricky Rubio: Then: Draftnet said his shot is not a finished product by any means, and Express just mentioned his total lack of attempts in Europe. Now: Rubio never added shooting to his game, and scoring ability overall has been his one true weakness. Rubio has shot .322 for his career on just 2.6 attempts per game from three. Rubio did not improve his shooting.
6. Johnny Flynn: Draftnet said he needs to be more consistent shooting, and that adding a three pointer and a reliable mid range shoot would make him un-guardable. Express said he has good mechanics but is inconsistent, but should be able to improve that part of his game. Now: Flynn flamed out after only 3 and a half seasons. After shooting a promising .353 on 2.6 attempts his rookie season, it only got worse from there, shooting .310 and .294 on 1.6 attempts per game, and overall was only .400 from the field. Johnny Flynn did not improve his shooting.
9. Demar Derozan: Then: Draftnet said Derozan was a fantastic mid range shooter, but didn't have three point range and also suffered at the line. Express said basically the same thing, both bringing up his .167 three point percentage and .650 FT percentage in college. Now: Demar seems to be the same player he was in college. One of the few mid range shooters in today's game, and is great at it, but never added that three pointer to take his game from all-star to all-nba, and was a big reason he wasn't on the championship Toronto squad. Shooting .283 on his career, on 1.6 attempts per game. It isn't improving at all, his altest season in San Antonio his worst since his 2nd year in Toronto. He did dramatically improve his free throw shooting however, from .650 in college to .828 now. Demar did not improve his shooting in the area he really needed to, but did improve his free throw shooting.
10. Brandon Jennings: Then: Another player where perimeter scoring was the weakness, was called inconsistent and was said to fade away too much on three pointers by both sites. Now: During his time as a starter, shoot a respectable .353 from three on 5.4 attempts per game. His overall shooting was poor at .387 from the field, but was very respectable from deep. Brandon Jennings improved his three point shooting, as he shot .220 in his pre-nba Euro days.
11. Terrance Williams: Then: Drafted as a defensive and athletic phenom, without much scoring and especially shooting. Express noted he went from .310-.380 in college, and Express noted that his .58 points per possession on jumpers was the worst among shooting guards. Now: Did not develop scoring much at all, 7.1 for his whole career. He shot .317 from three in his 150 or so games in the NBA. Terrance Williams did not develop his shooting in the NBA.
12. Gerald Henderson: Then: Drafted as a top tier scorer, but both Express and Draftnet had his jump shooting as a weakness. Both said he was improving throughout college, but had a long way to go still. Not a natural, pure jump shooter whether off the dribble or catch and shoot. Now: Throughout his 8 year career, never really managed to add a real three point threat. Did improve his percentages to about league average towards the end, but was only making less than 1 per game even then. Gerald Henderson did not meaningfully improve his shooting.
13. Tyler Hansbrough: Then: Both sites mentioned he had some potential from midrange despite his shot looking a bit awkward, and did not have range out to the three point line, but was an .800 FT shooter. Now: Despite being a great scorer in college (had the ACC points record) could not put together in the NBA, and never improved his shooting range. Also regressed in his FT shooting towards the end of his career, though that can be contributed to low sample size. Tyler Hansbrough did not improve his shooting.
14. Earl Clark: Then: Drafted for his physical tools, aka his size and athleticism. He likes to shoot, and improved his shot somewhat throughout his career, but still not strength, especially his shot selection. Now: Had a 5 year career in the NBA, but never really put anything together. Scoring was not something he did well by any stretch, and never got out to the three point line. Shot .400 from 2 and .320 from three, and only had 1 attempt from deep per game in his career. Earl Clark did not improve his shooting.
Overall: 4/11, not counting Demar who did dramatically increase his FT shooting. This year had a lot more players that did not have a reliable jump shot. Two of them developed them to become super stars, but many more could not and busted quite hard.
2008+2009 5/15, good for 33.3% of lottery players able to develop a poor shot.
Next week we will continue with the 2010 and 2011 draft classes.