A continuation of last weeks series in analyzing how often it is top prospects that can't shoot, learn to. So far, only 4/15 players managed to develop a shot, however two of those players went from top prospect to MVP level players in James Harden and Blake Griffin. Last week was 2008 and 2009, so we will do 2010-2011 today.
2010:
1. John Wall: Then: Another of the hyper athletic point guard mold that we saw with Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook. Just like those guys, shooting was Wall's only big flaw. NBAdraft.net said "Wall's jumpshot is a work in progress ... Shooting is the easiest skill to improve upon in the league and Wall's shooting form is not horrible," while Draft Express said "Because he's a far better slasher at this point than he is a shooter, defenses tend to sag off him and force him to beat them with his still-erratic pull-up jumper". Once again there was a lot of optimism that he could fix it. Now: John Wall was not really able to make his shooting a weapon. Defenses can still sag on him. Hasn't stopped him from being an all-star caliber player, but one could say he didn't hit his full potential, only making one third team all-NBA in his career. He has shot .324 from three for his career, on 2.9 attempts per game, and is around .340 from the mid-range (numbers from nbasavant.com). He was only above league average once in three point percentage. John Wall has not improved his shooting in the NBA.
2. Evan Turner: Then: NBADraft said Turner was a better scorer than shooter, and needed to improve his catch and shoot ability, along with his range and consistency. Express said about the same thing, mentioning he needs to improve his off-ball game (shooting) to fully open up his game. Now: Turner still has a solid 10 year career going on, but never managed to live up to being a number 2 overall pick. This is largely due to his inability to live up to his scoring potential and never being able to fully develop that catch and shoot ability. He is shooting .296 from three on his career. Evan Turner did not manage to improve his shooting in the NBA.
3. Derrick Favors: Then: The draft sites say he has a shaky jumper and not a ton of range, only comfortable out to maybe 12-15 feet. Now: Statistics show he has not really managed to strengthen this area much. He is still a non-existent three point shooter, and even from mid range only shoots in the high 30 percents, and really only from the free throw line area. Derrick Favors did not improve his shooting.
5. DeMarcus Cousins: Then: Did not take many jump shots at all, only taking 24 total in college. Now: Has definitely managed to add a respectable jump shot, especially for someone of his size and position. Not counting his last season where he was coming off of an Achilles tear, since 2015 he is shooting .352 from three (.006 from league average) on a solid 4.7 attempts per game. DeMarcus Cousins has improved his shooting in the NBA.
7. Greg Monroe: Then: Both sites were concerned about his jump shot. DraftExpress was more harsh, saying he has a "complete lack of a perimeter shot," only making 11/45 jump shots in college, and struggled from catch and shoot and off dribble shots. Now: Monroe did not develop a three point shot whatsoever, he is 1/17 for his entire career. From mid-range he has not fared much better, according to data from 2010-2018 Monroe has hit .350 of his mid-range looks, although from the left mid-range corner he does shoot .400 on high volume. Greg Monroe did not develop a shot in the NBA.
8. Al-Farouq Aminu: Then: Express said he is inconsistent, and noted he was 18/66 from three in college, though he showed flashes of ability. Draftnet was a bit harsher, saying "Aminu's glaring weakness is his inability to create shots for himself and hit from the outside" and many other lines about Aminu's lack of shooting. Now: Aminu is not a star, but a solid role player that possesses the valuable 3-and-D type of skill set. While his first few years in the league were a struggle, since 2015 he has shot a respectable .353 on 4 attempts from deep per game, meaning his shooting is definitely a threat. Al-Farouq Aminu improved his shot in the NBA.
13. Ed Davis: Then: Both sites mentioned that shooting was not part of his game, but would need to add it. NBADraft said " Should look to extend his range, developing a consistent mid-range shot," and was pretty confident he could do it, and Express said "Clearly, Davis still needs to improve his midrange game to become a more capable threat from the elbows and a more versatile scorer," and noted he rarely took jump shots in college. Now: Ed Davis is still in the NBA, contributing as a solid big man, but he never developed any shot. the 3 ball is non-existent, and the mid-range game is only a little better, he has hit an okay .384 from outside the paint, but on very few attempts. Ed Davis did not develop a shot in the NBA.
Caveats: Cole Aldrich was a poor shooter in college and never developed it in the pros, but as a 6'11" center was never supposed to or expected to develop one, so I did not include him.
Overall: 2/7 players improved
2011:
4. Tristan Thompson: Then: Despite being a Power Forward/Center, due to his smaller stature a jump shot was deemed to be necessary. Nearly the entire weakness section on NBAdraft.net was dedicated to his jump shot needing work, while Express said scoring in general was a problem including his jumper. Now: Not much has changed, as Thompson still cannot score much more than dunks and put backs. Does not take any threes, shoots around .600 from the line and around .350 from mid range, and even on very small volume. Only the the mid left corner has any sort of a sample size. Tristan Thompson has not improved his shot in the NBA.
5. Jonas Valancunias: Then: NBAdraft.net listed him as having no real perimeter skills. Express only said that his midrange shows flashes. Now: Has shown some ability to step out to the three, shooting .361 on very few attempts in his last two years on 1 attempt per game. From mid range he has been okay as well. Overall he is around .390 from mid, mostly from the left corner, but he does shot .480 from the free throw area and .500 from the right corner on low attempts. Overall, Jonas Valancunias improved his shooting.
6. Jan Vesely: Then: Both sites agreed offense in general needed to be worked on, and jump shooting was one of those core things. DraftExpress said "he was not terribly effective as a jump-shooter, though, garnering .78 points per shot he attempted, 5th worst in this group, almost all of which in catch and shoot situations." Now: Vesely never managed to make his mark on the NBA, flaming out after just 2-3 years. He did not develop a three pointer, or a mid range jumper. He did not make a three pointer in his NBA career, and shot just .185 outside of the paint. Jan Vesely did not improve his shooting in the NBA.
7. Bismack Biyombo was not a good shooter, but according to draft sites he probably wasn't really expected to.
12. Alec Burks: Then: A talented scorer, but three point range was not a skill set he had. Had a .734 point per shot which was last in his draft class, and converted on just .270 of his pull up jumpers. NBAdraft.net noted his poor mechanics as he goes further, and his .290 three point percentage in college. Now: Alec Burks has not had the most successful career befitting a lottery pick. Last year he only played 13 games on 9.8 mpg. From three, he has shot about league average on low volume, .355 on 1.9 attempts per game. From mid range he has not shot great either, showing about .363 from all mid range spots. Swish 2.0's shot chart has him below average at almost every mid range spot except the right corner, where he is average. Burks percentages went up, but his usage and attempts went way down, so it is hard to say how much he really improved. However, I will still count this as an improvement.
Overall: 2/4. The rest of the draftees were known to be pretty solid shooters, Kemba, Klay and Kyrie being notable players in this class.
Both years combined, 4/11.
Total 2008-2011, 9/26 or 34.6%.
Next week we will look at the final two years, 2012 and 2013.