Final part of the series looking at prospects from 6 years of drafts and seeing if shooting improvement can be relied upon. We have looked at 2008-2011, and so far 28.8% have them have give or take a few cases. In actual numbers its 7.5/26. Not a great ratio so far, but things can improve. Like we've seen there have been 2 draft picks especially that were able to improve their shooting and became super stars in James Harden and Blake Griffin. Many more were not able to and flamed, like Jan Vesely or Joe Alexander. Many more simply couldn't improve and could not reach the lofty status that maybe were hoped for, like John Wall or Evan Turner.
2012:
1. Anthony Davis: Then: NBAdraft.net said "Doesn’t yet have a feel for his jump shot, often rushing the attempt and shooting a flat shot," while DraftExpress noted that his jump shot made just .731 PPP, and translated to Davis making just .340 of his jump shots. NBADraft.net did note that his jump shot was aesthetically pleasing and he shot a good percentage from the line. Neither even mentioned the possibility of three point range. Now: Davis has developed a solid jump shot. He was even gotten out to the three point line, hitting .322 of his tries on 1.9 attempts per game his last 4 seasons. Not great percentages, but he went from nothing too at least something of a threat. His mid-range game has also become a strong weapon. He shoots over .405 from the mid range across all areas, according to NBAsavant, showing he is definitely capable from any spot. Anthony Davis has improved his shooting in the NBA.
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: Then: Shooting, and creating offense in the half court in general, was his biggest weakness. Express and Draftnet both mentioned his poor mechanics, and noted that he needed a jump shot more than anything in his game. Now: MKG did not fix his problems shooting or scoring. He has lost his starting spot in Charlotte with less minutes than ever now, and has only scored double digits for a season twice. He is a career .277 3 point shooter on .2 attempts per game, so basically nothing. He shoots well below average from almost every mid-range spot except average from the mid left corner. He shoots below .400 from all spots. Michael Kidd- Gilchrist did not improve his shooting in the NBA in any significant way.
5. Thomas Robinson: Then: Shooting, and overall scoring was another issue with this player. Both sites said he needed to develop a consistent mid-range game to take his NBA game to the next level. They said he has a solid post game, but would need to develop a jump shot. NBADraft.net only mentioned it wasn't consistent. Express gave some more details, saying he rarely took shots, but when he did, he only hit .350 of them. Now: In the NBA, it was even worse. He shot below .350 from all mid rang areas, and all in all came out to .277. Thomas Robinson did not improve his shooting in the NBA.
13. Kendall Marshall: Then: While both sites were excited about how strong his passing game was, they were equally down on his overall scoring ability. NBADraft.net rated his jump shooting a 6, which sounds okay except I've never seen a rating that low on a lottery pick so far, especially on a guard. They both talked about his total lack of offense. He only scored 7.9 PPG the year he left, and had one of the lowest true shooting percentages. DraftExpress did say he was shooting good percentages from three and the free throw line however, just on very low attempts and they were in general wide open attempts only. Now: Kendall Marshall is out of the league after just 4 years, and never figured out scoring in any real way. His overall field goal percentage was .399, not a great mark, and never scored above 10 ppg. His 3 point percentage while solid, came on low attempts, and besides one season his free throw percentage was quite low as well, just like college. Kendall Marshall did not meaningfully improve his shooting in the NBA.
14. John Henson: Then: Both sites briefly mentioned his lack of shooting ability. They didn't go into much detail, DraftExpress only said it was unreliable. Draft.net said the same, but also added that he was improving and showed a lot of promise. Now: John Henson is still in the league, but hasn't much improved the shooting. He showed this year a modicum of three point ability, hitting .8 3's per game on .355. Besides that, he hasn't shown much, and his mid range game is weak. Swish 2.0 shows his mid range percent at 3 spots is below .250, and the other two spots he is only at .350. In total, he hits about .298 of his mid shots, and his free throw percentage is only .570 on his career. John Henson did not improve his NBA shooting.
Caveats: NBADraft mentioned Andre Drummond's lack of shooting, but DraftExpress did not, as they seemingly didn't even believe in him to develop one at all, so he was not added. Meyers Leonard was not mentioned in draft notes as having three point range, but they don't call him M3y3rs L3onard now for nothing. However, they also said he is a solid shooter and did not question his ability there, and even now he only takes around 2 threes a game and hasn't really gotten consistent minutes in the league, so he wasn't added.
Overall: 1/5 people improved their shooting in the NBA from the 2012 draft.
2013:
5. Alex Len: Then: NBADraft.net said he occasionally showed flashes of his shot, but they also said he had no face-up game and showed a total lack of a pick-and-pop game. Express instead said he had an okay face-up game, but agreed he wasn't a consistent jump shooter, hitting only .360 of his catch and shoot attempts, but showed promise. Now: Alex Len has survived in the league as a bit part player here and there, but has never been an offensive force. He is a curious case though. His mid-range game has never been a thing, and even took a larger step this last year than before. However, he has seemingly added a solid three point shot, shooting well above league average on 2.6 attempts per game. I'll say he improved his shooting however, adding a three point shot is better than a mid-range game.
6. Nerlens Noel: Then: A defensive maestro, without much of an offensive game. Shooting was listed as a major weakness for him, and DraftExpress said he didn't show any semblance of a jump shot. Now: He still doesn't have an outside shot, and he good for much outside of the paint. Swish 2.0 showed he shoots below average from every mid range area, NBAsavant shows .291 overall. Nerlens Noel did not improve his shooting.
11. Michael Carter-Williams: Then: Another 6 on the shooting scale, which already isn't a good sign. Both sites mentioned his incredibly poor shooting ability, in the .200's in most jump shooting categories. In other words, a poor shooter. Now: Unfortunately, despite a promising rookie season, he has failed to improve meaningfully each year, and has been seeing less and less play time. He never figured out his shooting issues, and his point totals have dropped each year. His career 3 point percentage is .251 and overall his field goal percentage is .401. He shoots below average from every mid-range spot as well. MCW did not improve his shooting.
12. Steven Adams: Then: They both noted his terrible free throw shooting percentage, and used it to point that he has no mid range shooting. DraftExpress noted his extremely poor mechanics. Now: Not much has changed. His shot chart on swish 2.0 was so packed into the paint that I thought it wasn't working. He has a surprising amount of attempts from 3, but only hits .251, and is only marginally better at .273 from mid according to NBAsavant.com. Steven Adams has not improved his shooting in the NBA.
14. Shabazz Muhammad: Then: Bit of a weirdo. His catch and shoot percentages were solid, and was a prolific shooter and scorer overall. However, they both noted his jump shooting percentage dropped by .160 when pulling up off the dribble, and he wasn't a terribly efficient shooter either. Now: Shabazz is unfortunately out of the league at this point. without ever managing to carve a steady spot. And his niche offensive ability was basically the same in the NBA, without the volume. He shot a solid .400 from both corner spots from three, but was pretty weak everywhere else. Shabazz Muhammad did not improve his shooting in the NBA.
Overall: 1/5. Seems like less and less draft selections are being made on players that can't shoot at all, and ones that do are defensive specialists.
Caveats: Both sites had doubts about Oladipo's shooting, but they were more about if he could keep up his strong shooting that he displayed in his last year in college. In the NBA, he did. He's not a fantastic shooter, but he's more than capable from range. Cody Zeller was the only prospect that the draft sites really disagreed on his jump shooting prowess. DraftExpress said it was his biggest weakness, NBADraft.net didn't mention it as a weakness, and said it was a strength instead.
Overall for both years, 2/10. This has been the lowest percentage so far, also the lowest amount of players drafted that couldn't shoot.
Overall for the whole data sample. 11/36, or 30.6%
Next week, the conclusion.