(Written on 7/28/2019)
We are 65% of the way into the first year of Bryce Harper's 13 year mega-deal. The Phillies, for better or for worse, are married to Harper for a long time. And there have been lots of ups-and-downs. From the beginning of season optimism where Harper jerseys became the fastest selling jersey of all time in any sport, in it's first 24 hours. Combined with a great start, sporting a +1.000 OPS in his first 15 games. Then that quickly turned to boos just a few games later. And where are we now? Bryce Harper is hitting .253/.366/.465. He has 71 RBIs and 17 HRs. The batting average may be poor, but it's 2019, and we don't care about batting average anymore. The other two, OBP and SLG are more important. And .366 and .465. According to FanGraphs easy to understand chart, a .366 is considered right on the cusp of a great OBP, and is the equivalent of a .300 hitter. This is due to Harper's ability to draw walks, with 66 on the year, a solid 6th in the majors. His .465 slugging is also a decent mark, but definitely a down year as it is solidly the second worst mark of his career. His OBP ranks 34th in the majors, but he doesn't rank in the top 50 of any other statistic besides the aforementioned walks and a top 20 mark in RBI's.
Those are the numbers. But the question on everyone's mind is, is Bryce Harper worth it? Traditional wisdom says no. Bryce Harper is a 1.4 oWAR player, good for 134th in the league, which certainly isn't a player worth 27.5 million. Machado and Arenado, the other recipients of the spring mega contracts are rocking almost double the offensive wins above replacement, not to mention the defensive side. Trout is on another level entirely. But at the same time, value is dependent on expectation. And what was expected from Harper? He was supposed to be popular. Harper has been popular, he has thrust the Phillies into the national spotlight, the aforementioned jersey sales, the national coverage, the highest attendance since the Phillies were playoff contenders in 2013. They aren't right now, and are doing worse than they were last year, but are 8,000 people up. But Bryce Harper hasn't just been valuable off the field, but also on the field. He has pretty much done what he has been doing for his career. A low batting average, a lot of walks, a lot of RBI's. And traditionally, August and September are his best months, so his already fairly standard numbers should go up. So if Harper was worth it depends on what the Phillies thought they were going to get with Harper. If they thought they were going to get MVP Harper, than no it wasn't worth it, but that also means the Phillies were misguided. If they thought he would basically perform as the rest of his career has gone, then combined with his star power, he has been worth it. In addition, Harper's young enough to not decline until quite a few years, and his ability to draw walks will not rapidly decline. Harper will be a top 10 walk drawer, and therefore a solid OBP player, for a long time.
Harper has been who he has been for most his career barring 1 miracle season. Especially if he goes on his customary hot streak in August. He has charisma and star power, possibly the most the MLB. And he's a young player showing promising signs of an enduring skill set already. Is he worth 330 million? Maybe not, almost no one is. But he might be a lot closer than what you think. And there are a lot of years to go.