The Summer of the NFL is ending with three high profile holdouts. Preseason Week 3 is coming, and the story lines are focused on the contract situations of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot and Melvin Gordon. (And Antonio Brown, but that is indecipherable.) What is the the reason each deal is stalling, and what are the core questions the organizations are asking? We explore them one by one, starting with Dak Prescott.
Dak is the current QB for the Cowboys entering the final year of his rookie deal, and the question for the Cowboys is: Is Dak Prescott good enough to warrant top QB money?Prescott unfortunately falls around that dreaded Dalton line of QB's. A guy that you can win with for sure, as evidenced by their 32-16 record with him and a 1-2 record in the post season. It's hard to let the QB that has seen that type of success go. He's always been available as well, playing in every game since he became the starter in 2016, and as they say the best ability is availability. On the other hand, he doesn't seem to have the raw throwing ability that is becoming more and more important in today's NFL. And with that comes doubts that he can lead his team to a championship. His 67 passing touchdowns since he's been in the league is 13th. He's 11th in yards in the same span, 13th in passer rating. Dak Prescott is a good QB, but he doesn't seem to quite be in that top echelon of players, your Aaron Rodgers, or your Matt Ryans, or Andrew Lucks. The problem is that he's asking for top tier money. The latest reports are he is asking for 40 million a year. This number is obviously inflated as a most basic negotiating tactic, but the price seems likely to settle in that 33-35 million range. The high-end of that ties him with Russell Wilson to be the highest paid QB in the league. The low end puts him 4th, right below Aaron Rodgers. Only the largest of Dallas homers will tell you that Dak is anywhere near that level. While QB money does go up every year, he will be at or above both Carson Wentz and the aforementioned Wilson who also signed this year. The numbers don't indicate Dak is worth that money. Even worse, these days the numbers indicate that no one is worth that money. Since 1994, the highest percentage of the cap that any Super Bowl winning QB has taken is Steve Young in 94 at 13%. Prescott's new potential deal will put him firmly above that. It's becoming harder and harder to win paying any QB that kind of money, much less a QB that is barely top 10. But it seems that this is just what QB money is now, meaning it's very possible he gets what he wants. For my money, I cannot fathom paying a QB of that level anywhere near this amount.
Ezekiel Elliot, on the other hand, has almost the exact opposite problem. He was drafted in the same year as Dak, but as their first round pick instead of their 4th, he still has two years on his deal, and is paid alright by running back standards. But Zeke, unlike Dak, has been the best overall back since he has been the league. He leads the league in yards by 600 over the number 2 guy, Todd Gurley. He's also second in touchdowns and first in attempts. He is a critical piece to this team, no doubt about it. The question for the Cowboys and Zeke is not "is Zeke a great player" like it may be for Dak, the question is one that the entire NFL is asking, it's "is the running back position worth much?" By all accounts, Zeke wants to be the highest paid RB, meaning at least above Todd Gurley's 14 million a year. The Cowboys have just offered him a deal that will make him the second, and are now waiting for Elliot's response. As an RB, his holdout will inevitably draw comparisons to Leveon Bell of last year, where he held out the entire year and got a big contract with the Jets. But unfortunately, Leveon's situation was very different, and the fallout of his holdout doesn't help Zeke one bit. 2018 saw Leveon Bell's production almost totally replaced by James Connor, a third round selection. And that same story played out all over the league, where less than highly touted running backs became key contributors, undrafted Phillip Lindsay, fifth rounder Aaron Jones, and 7th rounder Chris Carson were all incredibly effective rushers this year. Franchises are finding that they don't need a big name to get big results, and if they can get that at 1/10th the price why pay top dollar? In addition, Leveon held some leverage, considering he had been franchise tagged twice, and he could sit out and be a free agent next year. Elliot cannot, as he is under contract, and not only under contract, but under two years of control. Zeke is negotiating from a place of almost no power, trying to get the most he can. It's understandable, as running back careers are very short, but the contract they offered him is most likely the best he can get. In fact, I'm shocked the Cowboys even offered him that. Add to that the rumblings between the two sides, and for my money, Zeke would be wise to take this deal and run.
Lastly, we have Melvin Gordon of the Chargers, who is another RB is in an identical situation with Zeke. Gordon has also been a top back in the league, tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the past three years with Zeke. Gordon is in a slightly stronger negotiating position, only being one year away from his deal. However he goes up against an organization that is traditionally quite stingy, versus one like Dallas that is usually more generous to their stars. The Chargers seem set to not budge, and news from Gordon's camp is that he is prepared to hold out into the regular season. Once again, it is different from Leveon, because Gordon will still have to report at some point during the season to accrue a year of service, but the Chargers are in a position to let him do that. The Charger's need to ask themselves "are our backups good enough to hold out until Melvin comes back?" Austin Ekeler was a weapon as a third down back last year, who along with Justin Jackson may be able to replicate much of what Melvin Gordon did for the Chargers. They've looked plenty capable in the preseason. The Chargers also play only three teams that made the playoffs last year in their first 8 games, which may help them soften the blow of his absence. Two of them are in the first three however, and starting 1-2 may cause the organization to push the panic button. If they find themselves down early, that may push things towards Gordon's way. The Chargers reportedly offered Gordon 10 million a year, but Gordon seems to be looking for somewhere in the Leveon Bell range of 13 per. For my money, three million difference isn't enough to risk losing one of Phillip River's precious few season. Pay the man.